Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using Ensemble Forecasting, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. When looking at forecasts up to 10 days in the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere begins to play a larger part - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days time.
It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures. The 6-15 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. The Met Office has a good track record in advising on any significant risk of severe weather in this period. The regional 3-5 day text forecasts provide a general picture of the weather on a day-by-day basis, with the main regional variations identified. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day, Seven day forecast and UK rainfall radar forecasts as well as the Regional forecast forecasts.
Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around 3 to 10 days ahead. Medium-range weather forecasts (3-10 days) Short-range forecasts provided by the Met Office are extremely accurate and are updated several times a day. Short range weather forecasts cover periods from just a few hours ahead (from the nowcasting time-scale) up to about three days ahead. Nowcasting maps the current weather and then uses an estimate of its speed and direction of movement to forecast the weather a short period ahead - assuming the weather will move without significant changes.Īt the Met Office, nowcasting is combined with the latest high resolution model output to form a detailed forecast for the next six hours. The latest 10 day weather forecast is covered in the Regional Forecast.
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